Throughout history, ‘progress’ has resulted in ongoing labour winners and losers. The shift to a global Green Economy, and the breakdown of ‘globalisation’, is overlaying dislocation from AI and other productivity enhancements. The US CHIPS act, EU Recovery Funds, the revival of European defence budgets, and the rush in Europe and US to re-shore or establish production for a vast array of goods currently produced in Asia, are all super-charging structural shortfalls of advanced manufacturing labour. The affiliated construction and infrastructure spending is having a similar effect in these areas. And yet, the number of under or unemployed young people remains stubbornly high.

In India and China, millions of graduates can’t find work. Immigration has historically been the release valve for these imbalances, but local resistance remains a strong headwind for a growing number of nations, via various means. In broad terms, the implications are that labour cost inflation in US and Europe could surprise on the upside, whereas in Asia, it could surprise on the downside, with all the attendant political and economic challenges coming from this. Upskilling and a re-focus of University programmes in the West appears to be an urgent challenge.